Substance and Beauty In Florida

McCainiacs rejoice. Last night's close but decisive victory over Mitt Romney in the Republican-only Florida Primary has indeed brought your man "a little closer" to the nomination. And the demographic substance of the victory was significant. McCain united important (and contradictory) subsets of Republicans: pro Bushies, anti-Bushies; military folks and civilians; economy firsters, security firsters. The economy first group has to buoy Mac's camp after his econ bona fides were deemed a vulnerability.

To be sure, McCain got a lot of help. It's impossible to overstate the importance of Gov. Charlie Crist's endorsement. He's extremely popular in the state. And once again, Mike Huckabee provided social conservative cover for McCain. Those who called themselves "very conservative" threw considerable support to Huck and thwarted Romney's claim to that important group. Here's an insider stat that will drive the Romney camp nuts: Romney had a 10 to 1 TV ad advantage over McCain. But while Romney garnered only 130 votes per spot, McCain walked away with 1,500 per. Ouch.

The other big story also throws huge mo' Mac's way. Rudy Giuliani's third place finish has bounced him out of the race and he will endorse McCain in some choreographed political theater at the Reagan Library today. This is obviously crucial for Super Tuesday as it leaves McCain as the only "moderate" for those Northeast Repubs who are economic but not social conservatives.

Mitt and Huck both vowed to press on. And why not? A fascinating sidebar to the Repub race is the simmering antipathy toward McCain from right wing nuts like Rush Limbaugh and his Ditto Heads. Limbaugh has famously remarked that a McCain presidency would "end the Republican Party as we know it." (Prompting many of us to say," Yeah. And your point is?" ) Last night, MSNBC's conservative voice, Joe Scarborough, let his true feelings surface briefly in a discussion about McCain's message: "This is a guy who's said jobs aren't coming back and we'll be in Iraq for a hundred years...so his message is less jobs and more wars. That's great." (Thanks, Joe for giving Democrats a great soundbite if Mac's the nominee.)

So Romney knows that there is still a core Republican base that wants an alternative. Unfortunately, that core may be sitting with Huckabee. Tim Russert made an interesting point last night, indicating that McCain was praying (no pun) for Huck to say in the race through Super Tuesday, because Huck's evangelical base is definitely hurting Romney. Russert said Mac was also dangling a VP spot for Huck. Now that would be an interesting ticket.

McCain's victory speech showed why so many people just flat out like him. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22905757#22905757
He was gracious and humble. He individually praised each of his major opponents with more than lip service. Cynics can point out that McCain wants Rudy's endorsement and Huck's help, so, of course, he'll say nice things about them. Perhaps, but he said to Romney supporters that the margin of victory [36%-31%],"...surely isn't big enough for me to brag about-- and for you to despair..." Face it, folks, normal politicians don't say those kinds of things.

On the Democratic side, Florida was a beauty contest, with no delegates awarded to any of the candidates. Predictably, Hillary Clinton won 50% of the votes (even though no one campaigned there) and then hailed it as a huge victory. Perhaps she hasn't read the breakdowns that show when Obama campaigns in states where she has had huge leads based upon her name recognition (that would be everywhere) he has eliminated almost all of those leads.

Hillary also vowed to work for Florida delegate recognition at the convention. The question lingers as to whether she would embark upon that quest if she had lost. To that point, Obama's camp unearthed a statement she made in Iowa that Michigan and Florida "don't matter". When confronted with that by MSNBC, Hill laughed it off as "political jargon". While no one expects her to openly admit that her Florida "victory celebration" was a stunt to recapture momentum after Obama's PR bonanza on Monday, her exuberance so denied reality that it makes you wonder how dumb she thinks the electorate is. And this is what many folks don't like about her. One moment she can be genuine and charming, and the next finds her slipping into that political lizard skin which transforms her into a phony.

Obama secured the endorsement of a rising new star on the political scene, Kathleen Sebelius, Governor of Kansas. This could prove troublesome for Clinton down the road. Sebelius, in many ways, is the anti-Hillary. She reeks of heartland(her favorite word)authenticity --note the natural gray hair--and is committed to reducing the politics of divisiveness. Perhaps a potential Obama running mate.

Tomorrow I'll break down the tonight's Repub debate on CNN and start some analysis to set up Super Tuesday.

We're also waiting on a new Fed rate cut. 25 or 5o basis points? We'll see.

Give me some thoughts on McCain's prospects and Romney's strategy. Just click on "comment" below.