Yearnin', Learnin- How Obama's SC Victory Sets The Stage For Super Tuesday

Forgive me for dating myself with a reference to an old Earth, Wind and Fire tune (who's that, Dad?), but it frames perfectly the central theme of Barack Obama's 28 point win in the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary yesterday: They're all yearnin', but who's learnin'? The next 10 days will tell us. What we do know is this: Barack Obama survived the Clinton attack machine and walked away with a 2 to 1 delegate victory, while capturing all but three counties in South Carolina. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/26/sc.primary/index.html

We also know what Rep. James Clyburn said about Obama's victory: "If he [Obama] ends up winning the nomination, he will definitely face an onslaught of attacks this fall and he may look back on South Carolina as the place that toughened him up." Amen. But, while no Clinton supporter has stated anything as succinctly, I'll say that if Hillary wins the nomination, she'll look back on SC as the place that showed her the limits of going negative and forced her to, again, calibrate her tone to deliver a more appealing message. If last night was any indication, however, Senator Obama seemed to be the quicker study. In his speech, Barack did what Barack does in speeches: He lobbed melifluous grenades from the high ground. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22860339#22860339

Let's face it, giving him a tele-prompter, a microphone and a crowd is like giving Bob Gibson a pitcher's mound, a baseball and a catcher. It's unfair if you're anywhere near the batter's box. And Obama, once again, took care of business. With the crowd responding to every phrase like a congregation in church, Obama reframed the race, "this is the past versus the future", where "we don't have to settle for the same division, distraction and drama..."; slammed the Clinton tactics, "we're up against the status quo who will do anything and say anything to get elected"; managed expectations, "it won't be easy", "we will make some mistakes"; and sent everyone skipping into the night with "we will heal this nation", "Yes we can!"

The Clintons did it a little differently. Hillary gave no concession speech. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22860695#22860695 She blithely congratulated Obama at a town hall meeting in Nashville before butchering her old standby joke about her lousy singing voice. And Bill gave his little nod to Obama in an address in Missouri before totally co-opting Obama's theme that the election is "about change". Not a classy start for the rest of their campaign--which was singled out in many exit polls as needing some class.

So what has John Edwards been learnin' in the face of all his yearnin'? Probably that he's not going to be President of the United States. Ever. 18% in his home state. Not good. No matter how he wants to spin it, you can take out the fork, Martha, he's done. And I think I learned why. For those of you who have been reading this blog, you know I have been obsessed with uncovering why Edwards gets no traction (in spite of filling so many positive Democratic criteria). So here's my take, once and for all. John Edwards has based his message on one thing and one thing only: being the voice of the unheard. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22860487#22860487
Which is beautiful. I mean it. This country needs that. But most of us don't fit in to that category. So sub-consciously people ask, "But what about me? Can you construct a vision for me?" And the sub-conscious answer is, "I don't think so". And so, he doesn't get the votes of the "heard" electorate. Which is about 85% of Democratic voters. Which explains his consistent 12-19% support across the board. Ok. I needed to get that off my chest. But I will say this and you heard it here first: John Edwards needs to be the next Attorney General. That way he gets to fight for the unheard, while the President constructs a plan for the rest of us.

So, what has the Democratic voter been learnin'? Not too much, really. This defeat is not catastrophic for Hillary. There are too many delegates still at play and she is still the second most formidable and skillful pure politician in the land. And guess who's number one? That's right, a guy named Bill. And while it's undeniable that the Clintons schooled Obama on the art of hardball politics, we'll see how much he learned and if the Clintons remain teachable also. The good news for Democrats is that this is how the process is supposed to work. Tailor the campaigns for greatest traction, find out what works and what doesn't, and eventually pick the strongest candidate.

Democrats, fasten your seat belts, because, to paraphrase Bette Davis, it's going to be a bumpy ten nights. Let me hear your thoughts on the primary and who you think will implement the lessons learned heading into Super Tuesday. Just click on "comments".