Barack...Duck!

Remember the old cartoons when a character would duck repeatedly as an antagonist hurled disparate items at his head--concluding with a kitchen sink? Welcome to Barack Obama's world. Now that he's swept the Potomac Primary and become the unofficial Democratic front runner, it's hammer time. No more fun and games. And we will see if he is truly tough enough to be Potus.

John McCain, who swept the Virginia, Maryland and DC Republican primaries, landed a preliminary salvo in a patronizing reference to "hope" in his victory speech. He also concluded his message with a signature Obama line, "I'm fired up and ready to go!", leaving listeners unsure as to whether he was mocking Obama or stealing his rhetorical flourishes.

Hillary Clinton offered no customary congratulations in her speech in El Paso last night. Who can blame her? She probably felt that Obama got congratulated enough by the media. She has a point. In an interview on Monday night, she chided Obama for not wanting to debate more, indicating that it's high time he started getting specific on issues. And in a speech on Monday, she brought up an issue I highlighted several blogs ago about Obama-sponsored legislation in Illinois that was watered down to appease a nuclear company-- with ties to Obama. It's going to get serious.

So what's got everyone so scared? Well, for starters, Obama's recent primary scorecard is 8 and 0. He's actually taken the lead in all delegates, including the Supers. If he wins in Hawaii, his home state, and Wisconsin, which looks more likely, he'll have a significant delegate lead. And now Hillary can't say Obama does well only in small states and caucuses. Virginia is a big state and all three of yesterday's contests were primaries. Moreover, he averaged two thirds of the vote in each primary--75% in DC. But most significantly, Obama started bucking demographic trends that have favored Hillary. In Virginia, a state with diverse demos , he dominated every demographic, except white women. And he trailed Hillary by only 5% with those voters. He also won the Latino vote, which has to make Clinton very nervous. And making Republicans nervous is the fact that Obama got 100,000 more votes than all the Republican candidates combined. Which means that Virginia is now in play for Democrats in the general for the first time since 1964. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/13/potomac.primaries.analysis/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080212

So, the feel-good part of this election is now over. With reports of new demographic penetration by Obama into the Latino vote, Texas may not be a guaranteed firewall for Hillary. Plus, the math demonstrates that she must win 56% of the remaining delegates in the big states to win the nomination. That's a tall order. Hillary's only hope is to drive down Obama's positive ratings. This won't happen in make-nice debates. Negative politics will return and only another voter backlash will deter it. Expect to hear the names Exelon (the nuclear company) and Larry Sinclair (a fellow who insists he had sexual relations with Obama and sold him crack). Expect to see microscopic analysis of every bill Obama did or did not vote for. Expect to hear, "Obama's weak on the issues, has no foreign policy experience, is too liberal and compromises too much with Republicans". If Obama can dodge all those flying objects, he deserves to get the nomination. Just watch out for that kitchen sink.

Today's topic is: do you think oppo research has a bona fide smoking gun on Obama? And do you think he can withstand the scrutiny and win the nomination?

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