C Ya

Mitt Romney launched his 2012 Republican presidential campaign yesterday by suspending his 2008 campaign. Speaking at CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Conference, Romney's announcement made the afternoon's next speaker, John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee (unless we've been seriously underestimating Mike Huckabee's relationship with God-- then, of course, anything is still possible).

I was originally going to walk you through the Romney, McCain and Ron Paul speeches but I'd rather use this time to open up a discussion on the state of the Republican Party. CPAC provides the perfect backdrop for this discussion. You can hear all those speeches at http://www.c-span.org/

For those of you who don't know, CPAC is an annual conference sponsored by the American Conservative Union. It's the main forum of the hard core right--people like Tom Delay and Laura Ingraham who have been beating John McCain over the head for being too liberal.

For these people, called "values voters" or "culture warriors", 2008 brings a question of influence. They first flexed their muscles in the congressional race of 1994, then helped elect George Bush in 2000 (well, kind of) and 2004. Their platform was summed up by Mitt Romney yesterday, who gleefully spewed a rant of intolerance to the very folks whose intolerance prevented him from getting the nomination. Who says Republicans have no sense of irony? The problem today for this reactionary sect of the Republican Party is that their standard bearer, George Bush, has not delivered on Ronald Reagan's famous litmus test. With control of the Congress for five years and God on his side, George Bush has not presided over an improvement in the lives of most Americans from eight years ago. A lack of government oversight has contributed to a paralyzing credit scenario. The absence of any energy policy has mired us in gas prices that depress our productivity. Wages are down, crime is up, teenage pregnancies, for years in decline, are up. The war in Iraq has been prosecuted badly and fiscal policy has ignored the strain the war puts on our monetary system. True, the Supreme Court moved to the right. True, the country experienced top-down economic growth for many years. But even a Sean Hannity would agree that George Bush's record, especially in terms of economic conservative principles, has been a disappointment. Government spending has increased, another huge entitlement program was added and a federal education plan was mandated, then underfunded. And we won't go into the administration's embarrassing response to Katrina and it's stubborn refusal to address serious concerns about our nation's infrastructure.

But the real difficulties facing the Republican Party, many people say, spring from the hi-jacking of true conservative values by those "values voters". Ron Paul's speech yesterday laid out plainly what a true conservative is: a person who believes that the Constitution is the guide for government. His statement that "personal liberty promotes peace, which promotes prosperity" bears little resemblance to Mitt Romney's "culture war" cant. So, if the Constitution is the guide for true conservatives, George Bush has again complicated their mission. His constant invocation of executive priveledge creates congitive dissonance for any conservative who believes that the document was created to reduce the governing power of a single person. His transformation of explanatory signing statements that accompany new legislation, into tools for circumventing that legislation, suggests that conservatives don't respect the laws of the land. A Chief Executive spying on the communications of private citizens, or a Vice President secretly meeting with an influential business group, or the public exposure of an intelligence officer's identity by members of an administration are all anathema to any strict constructionist. And they create a veneer of hipcrosy that sullies true conservatism and its valuable principles.

And this brings us to John McCain. Here's a guy who's been taking a beating from the hard core right. And the reason is that he understands that a diverse nation requires legislative compromise to solve problems. He's reached across the aisle to do this and he's gotten hammered for it. But he hasn't deserted core conservative principles. Take the so-called "marriage amendment". No true conservative can think it's a good idea to change the Constitution to allow the federal government to dictate the private lives of citizens. So McCain didn't fight for it. He got hammered. He didn't vote for the Bush tax cuts because they weren't fiscally responsible. He got hammered. He tried to work out an achievable immigration plan. He got hammered. He believes that an energy policy that enhances the well being of the environment for future generations is worth discussing. He gets hammered for it.

So the question for everyone to ponder is: who is the Republican Party today? Is John McCain the new standard bearer? Can he convince Laura Ingraham that his brand of conservatism is the real deal? Can he convince James Dobson that he can attract more Americans to a new conservative movement? Does he even want the endorsement of Tom Delay, who still insists that there is "no scientific evidence to prove that climate change is man-made"? (Yes, those folks are still out there). These are big questions. Right now, the Republican Party is suffering from a major John Kerry moment: their last man standing excites very few people. The good news is that they now have nine months to figure it all out. Let's hear how you think that can happen. And if you're a Democrat, list some conservative approaches to government that you think are worthwhile. Hint: there are some, if you're paying attention.

I am starting two new mini-commentaries: the Politics As Usual watch (PAU) and Best Political Move of the day (BPM). The PAU describes a sneaky manuver that perpetuates politics as usual. BPM is a smart manuver that moves a campaign toward its goal. Sometimes, they may be one and the same.

Today:
PAU- Barack Obama's campaign leaked a memo to the press about the potential delegate stalemate at the end of the primary season, and claimed it did so "by mistake". Please.

BPM -- Hillary Clinton, in a speech acknowledging McCain's presumtive nomination, warmly emphasized her "friendship" with John McCain. This, of course, continues McCain's marginalization with the hard core right, which helps the Democratic nominee in the general. Brilliant.

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