The More Things Stay The Same...The More They Change

While the past weekend's caucuses and primaries didn't change the big election picture for either party, more subtle shifts and changes could have dramatic impact in the near future.

What stayed the same? In spite of Barack Obama's weekend victory sweep (Washington, Nebraska, Virgin Islands, Maine and Louisiana), which earned him approximately 40 net delgates, he remains virtually tied with Hillary Clinton. That's based on-- all together now-- her earlier wins in heavily populated states and her 90+ Super Delegate advantage. Obama's dominance in caucuses (as opposed to primaries) remains a constant, as well as the general demographics for each candidate. Other constants: the Clinton campaign firing off emails to the media to let them know that they expected the losses to Obama, as if that reduces their significance; Obama stressing the importance of these wins, even thought they don't gain him much.

For the Repubs, what stayed the same is that John McCain still has the inside track to the nomination --even though Mike Huckabee took two out of three with a big win in Kansas, a narrow win in Louisiana and a close loss in Washington state. Also, the songs remain the same as the Republican jukebox continues to play "The Hardcore Right Hates John McCain Blues" and "Hit The Road, Mike (And Don't Ya Come Back No More)". Huck insists he'll stay in until Mac hits the required number of delegates.

And what's changed? Interestingly, Hillary Clinton's stump speech. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23088122#23088122
At the Virginia Jefferson-Jackson dinner, she presented a concise version, that alluded to the fact that this historical election includes a woman and a Black man, two people whom the Founders didn't even recognize as political entities when they wrote the Constitution. But, she added, they're now included because Americans have always strived for "a more perfect Union". Her speech now includes a perfect blend of policy and aspiration. Obama's standard stump speech is now starting to sound a little tired. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23088836#23088836
Quite a change.

Other changes for the Dems: Patti Solis Doyle "stepped down" as Campaign Manager, replaced by long-time Hillary aide Maggie Williams. This was brewing for a while. If Hillary had lost New Hampshire, this was one of the changes she was planning to make. Question: as a Latina, does Solis Doyle's departure create a negative for the Hispanic community? Another change on the way: if, (and I still think it's a big 'if') Obama sweeps the Potomac Primary, Hillary will beat it down to Texas to start building the firewall. Interesting to me that my home state, Virginia, is becoming the swing state this year. That's also change. And just a random thought along those lines: if I were Barry or Hill, I'd be lined up to snag either Sen. Jim Webb (ex-Under Secretary of the Navy), Ex-Gov. and Senator-to-be Mark Warner, or centrist current Gov. Tim Caine as a running mate. All solid, all presidential, all able to deliver the Commonwealth in a general.

For the Repubs, one change is that George Bush finally came to the defense of John McCain. Sure, it was half-hearted but it was the least he could do after Mac swallowed his pride and supported Bush in 2004. Another change is that Mike Huckabee is able to make a real case that he's got something going. But the biggest change is that Huckabee is now tasting his own vote-grabbing medecine, courtesy of Ron Paul and the now-departed Mitt Romney. In a straight head-to-head with McCain, Huck would have swept all three states this weekend. Ron Paul siphoned away a ton of votes in Washington (21% or so), and Romney (who was still on the ballot ) combined with Paul to snag a total of 11% of the vote in Louisiana. If Huck had taken 60% of that 11% he would've snagged 50% of the total vote and taken all of Louisiana's Republican delegates. With 43%, he beat McCain, but recieved no delegates (per Louisiana party rules). So now Huckabee's the one pining for a straight head-to-head battle. You can't make this stuff up. Check out the scorecard here. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

And finally, to tie it all together, the biggest change from things staying the same, is that both parties have different things to fear than they did a month ago. The Dems, so united in their approval of three worthy candidates, are now in danger of becoming the fractious party the Repubs were when they had a crowded field. The Repubs now may have a clear choice, but they have to fear that the second place finisher doesn't expose so many demographic holes in the front runner's support that victory in the general is compromised.

The Potomac Primary tomorrow will jolt both parties out of this stasis. If Obama sweeps again, with his cash advantage, he can stay close to Hillary on March 4th in Texas and Ohio. And then she could be in trouble. If Hillary has another New Hampshire moment by winning Virginia, she vaults back into front-runner position. If Huck takes Virginia, which I think is unlikely, he's going to really feel the pressure to get out of the race. If Mac does well, the party's over for Huck, and Mac can start figuring out how "100 years in Iraq" can be a winning campaign slogan.

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