Mr. Likeable

I suppose the positive nature of Barack Obama's candidacy has rubbed off on me because I was tempted to title this post "Mommy Dearest"--but then I thought that was unkind and needlessly divisive. See? That's change you can believe in. But seriously, last night's Democratic Presidential debate in Cleveland made me about as comfortable as watching an episode of "In Treatment". Only this episode featured Hillary Clinton as a frustrated mother, Obama as her quietly rebellious son and Tim Russert as the therapist hell bent on getting to the bottom of it all. Yeesh.

Desperate to reassert herself and add primacy to her campaign, Hillary Clinton offered an aggressive approach that showed us the many faces of Eve--except the one that her opponent has trademarked: likeability. Hillary may have gained some voters last night--some women and some Jews--by reminding us of the 'sea change' a female President would implicitly effect, and by insisting that Barack Obama use the word 'reject' to distance himself from Louis Farrakhan. But her problem last night and moving forward is quite simply this: Obama has changed the calculus in debates. It's not 'who won or who lost?' anymore, it's 'did she change the course of the race?' And the answer, as it has been everytime they've met, is 'no'. If anything, stepping in the ring against the clearly superior debater has improved Obama in each debate. In fact, many agree he was at his most Presidential last night.

Hillary's problem now is that no matter how she performs--in anything!--she can't offset Obama's most powerful asset: his innate likeability. By likeability, I don't mean a person you neccessarily want to be your friend. I mean a person whose temperment is reliable; someone who seems decent and reasonable; someone you feel won't turn on you. It is the single most attractive political attribute a candidate can have. Ronald Reagan had it. Both George Bush's have it. And all of these guys drove Democrats nuts because they were considered by liberals to be unquestionably inferior. But criticisms didn't stick, defficiencies were overlooked and it was all because people, well, they just kinda...liked them. And if you're on the other side of that, it seems grossly unfair. The worst thing you can do, however, is whine about it. And that's what Clinton did early in the debate. She called out Brian Williams and Tim Russert for asking her the first question all the time. Not very Presidential. She mocked Obama for preferential treatment she believes he gets, referring to a SNL skit, for crying out loud. Of course, Obama just smiled, or shrugged, or quietly shook his head as if to say, 'Wow, I'm glad I'm not that unhappy'.

On substance, Hillary always gives a strong debate performance. Last night was no exception, though she was tripped up briefly by Tim Russert's pointed questioning on Nafta. The mild surprise last night was Obama's strong performance. He battled her to a draw on health care. He scored points on Iraq, especially parrying her criticism that he had voted with her on all the subsequent Iraq votes (best line, ' well, when you drive a bus into a ditch there are only so many ways to get it out, but I didn't vote to drive it into a ditch in the first place'). He also seemed strong on all of his national security arguments. Her strongest moment was her uncomfortable but correct insistence that Obama categorically 'reject' Louis Farrakhan's 'endorsement'. He, of course, undercut the moment by doing as she asked.

So what's left for Hillary? Hard to say. As I mentioned to a friend, her personality swings, as she searches for the right tone, remind me of an alcoholic parent. Sometimes they're sweet, sometimes abusive, sometimes funny, sometimes cold, but they're never consistent. And so they're never trustworthy on an emotional level. This is Hillary's biggest problem. In her public persona (I stress 'public'), she's Mommy Dearest. He's Mr. Likeable. Who would you rather spend four years with?

There's a great deal of other news that I want to address tomorrow. Things like John McCain's Bill Cunningham debacle ("...Madeleine Albright, who looks like death warmed over..." are you serious?); the amazingly bad economic news; shocking projections on inflationary health care costs. It's too much to cover, so I'll try to bring it to you tomorrow.

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