'On Wisconsin' And Kakua For Clinton?

Forget Ohio and Texas, today's primary in Wisconsin and the caucuses in Hawai'i hold the key to the Democratic nomination. Why? Let me count the ways, first for Obama. If he wins:
1. On a 10-0 run, it enlarges his aura of inevitability and keeps the excitement high.
2. The races in Texas and Ohio will get much closer in his favor.
3. He increases his delegate lead. This means that future victory margins for Hillary have to be unrealistically large.
4. He puts to bed the claims that he can't win a primary in a key Democratic state.
5. He shows that the negative attacks aren't working.
6. He proves, once again, that his on-the-ground organzation is the best.

If Hillary wins:
1. She's baa-aaack. With such a fluid race, a come-from-behind victory will bring her dead even with Obama on the excitement meter.
2. She virtually evens the delegate battle.
3. She proves she can win a caucus.
4. She proves that her negative campaign against him is working.
5. She exponentially increases her fundraising.
6. She proves that this race is really not over.

So, with so much at stake, I'm surprised Obama's campaign did not milk every last second to campaign in Wisconsin. Why go to Ohio yesterday and to Texas today when you can put a stranglehold on this thing with victories in today's contests? Maybe because, as in New Hampshire, Obama lapsed into front runner mode prematurely. The fact is, Democrats don't want this race to end yet. People like me hate the negative politics of the Clintons but we do want to see how Obama handles himself in the face of them. Even though Obama got the jump on Clinton in the state, Hillary made the smart call to fight for her life in Wisconsin. And what are we hearing in early exit polls? Too close to call, in both Hawai'i and Wisconsin. If Clinton can somehow pull out one of them, the Obama spell may be broken and we'll witness an all out war. Guess who that favors?

Obama had a bad day yesterday with the plagiarism charges. Not the way you want to head into an election. Fortunately, some unseemly on-the-trail behavior by Bill (confronting an Obama supporter in a rope line) mitigated some of the sting. But still...this is waaaay too close to mess around. The good news for Obama supporters is, if he survives these days, he'll probably be ready for other tough ones. The good news for Hillary supporters is, the battle is shifting to her strengths. We all wish those weren't of the negative variety, but, hey...that's politics.

By the way, 'kakua' is Hawai'ian for assistance.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23232655/

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