Welcome To The First Day Of the Rest Of Your Campaign

Before we look at the implications of Super Tuesday, I'd like to take a moment to remember the victims of the devastating storms in the mid-South last night. I have dear friends in Memphis and Mississippi, (they all seem to be safe) but at least 45 people in four different states (Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee and Alabama), were not so lucky. My prayers go out to the families affected by this tragedy. You can read more about it. http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/02/06/tornadoes/index.html

And, of course, there's bad news on the economy. The Dow dove 370 points yesterday and service sector jobs were down, pointing us squarely to a recession. My question before we get to Super Tuesday talk is this: Is the US economy now structured to perform in 8 year boom and bust cycles? Are we a solid economy, with these periodic corrections, or do we have a "bubble" economy, which needs more oversight. Supply-siders, try to step outside the box to answer this and Dems, do the same. Ok, on to Super Tuesday.

Now, let's be honest. The only real surprise from last night was that the two man race that materialized for Republicans turned out to be between Mike Huckabee and John McCain. Ok, I guess I didn't know that Montana was Ron Paul country (25%), but come to think of it, that's not really a surprise, either, is it? Anyway, it's true that Mitt Romney won more states than Huck and has more delegates, but he didn't win any southern states (a no-no for a conservative) and two of his victories were in states in which he has lived ( Mass. and Utah). Plus, he lost Cali, where he had busted it with time and money. MSNBC was reporting late last night that the Romney camp was going to conduct "frank discussions" today on the future of his campaign. Aside from that, the expected story was that McCain effectively put a stranglehold on the nomination last night. He won the big prizes, New York, Cali, Illinois, Oklahoma and Mizzou. He now has a 2 to 1 delegate lead over Mitt. He has major mo' going forward. 'Nuff said.

For the Dems? It's even. Even, even, even. Even steven. Did I say it was even? It's even. No amount of spinning can give either candidate an edge. Clinton won the two big states, NY and Cali, and was geographically diverse. Obama won one big state, Illinois, and was geographically diverse. Clinton flexed her muscles with Hispanic voters, Obama with Black voters. Clinton held on to women, Obama to men. Obama did much better than before with white voters, but Hillary still does better with them overall. Clinton held her own in the face of huge Obama press coverage and percieved momentum. Obama proved he has a national following. When the final tallies are completed, Clinton will probably have a lead in delegates, but it's not significant. Folks, this race is even. In fact, it's so even, I tried to come up with a tie breaker: I analyzed the past two general presidential elections, identified the swing states, then applied Clinton and Obama victories in those states to see who had the edge. Here's what I found:

• Arkansas-Hillary
• Colorado - Obama
• Florida - Hillary
• Iowa - Obama
• Michigan - Hillary
• Minnesota - Obama
• Missouri - Obama
• Nevada - Hillary
• New Mexico - Hillary or Obama

In other words: Even.

So, what happens now, on the first day of the rest of the campaign? Well, the pundits are saying that McCain's front runner status allows Republicans to coalesce around him early, which could provide an advantage in the general. They say if Democrats continue to duke it out, it will split the party. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23024795/ I thoroughly disagree. It'll take more than front runner status to unite Repubs around McCain. They are a seriously disaffected lot. The Democrats, on the other hand, are looking at a rib-eye and a New York Strip cooking on the grill: it's fun to watch because you know either one will taste real good. And last night's speeches prove that point. Hillary was pitch perfect http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23021857#23021857 and Obama did what Obama does http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23022671#23022671 .

So let's see what happens, because you all know I'm about letting the People speak when they speak and not making predictions. (What was that poll giving Obama a lead in Cali? Come on.)

In the interest of equal time, here are the Repubs' speeches, as well.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23022473#23022473

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23022473#23021515

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23022473#23021197

Tell me what you think about Super Tuesday, the economy or anything else. Click on "comments", by-pass the Google sign up, and give us a nickname or click "anonymous".