Thursday, July 24, 2008

Der Commissar's In Town

I heard someone on XM's POTUS '08 say that Barack in Berlin was even bigger than The Scorpions reunion tour. That's big. Germans love their most famous 80's hair band.

Yes, the 'Be Careful What You Ask for, John McCain' tour kept rolling on. With more spectacular 'optics' (the new '08 campaign hot word), another almost flawless performance by Obama, and a growing sense that America's newest face is a great ambassador for our country.

You can complain about the coverage or complain about the attention but understand this basic fact: the political professionalism on display this week says something about the candidate and his ability to lead. First of all, a production like this requires a lot of money, which was raised by the most prolific fund raising machine ever. It requires advance people for logistics; policy experts to interpret information; speechwriters to craft message; big picture and small picture strategists; and all those who execute those strategies. Let's be honest: you sense that the McCain campaign couldn't pull off this type of trip if they had all year.

Now, let's review: O-Force sinks a trey in front of cheering troops in Afghanistan; parties in Kuwait; meets more troops, some Generals and diplomats without a slip-up in Iraq; parties in Jordan; assumes appropriate gravitas in Israel and Palestine; then kills 'em in front of 200,000 Berliners by the Victory column. 'Don't turn around, uh oh, oh; Der Commissar's in town , uh, oh, oh, oh.'

In fact, the only mistake Obama has made is to create such a spectacular trip... that John McCain is now exactly where he feels most comfortable: as the underdog. McCain's answer to Obama' s speech? I'll pick my teeth on camera in front of a German restaurant. Yeah, those are some good optics.

But don't be fooled. We love to watch fabulous, but we're more comfortable with ordinary. That's why numerous polls show a tight race in spite of Obama's non stop coverage and pristine event production. On top of that, McCain knows how to fight inside. He's landing some unspectacular but consistent body shots. He's Joe Frazier to Obama's Ali. And even though his surrogates whine about media coverage, the man gets more gaffe relief than anyone since Ronald Reagan. That's right, I said Ronald Reagan (Mr. please-wake-up-you're-in-a-negotiation-in-Helsinki).

So, as the GOP tries gamely to parry Obama's tour de force with all manner of shots, petty and legitimate, I simply ask you to read the speech. Parse the words. Then ask yourself: do these sentiments uttered by a fellow citizen...make you proud of your country?

Talk about this or anything else by clicking on 'comments' below, bypassing the Google search and hitting the anonymous or nickname button.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Everything Keeps Coming up Roses...

There still could be a stumble on Barack Obama's world tour. I mean, he has yet to visit Israel, where he could violate some kosher edict; or Jordan, where he might attract the furtive glances of Queen Noor. He could joke into a hot mike that Berlin doesn't seem to have a 'soup Nazi', like New York. You just never know what can happen when the pressure's on.

But so far, everything 's been coming up up roses for Obama. Let's review: as Obama leaves on his 8 nation junket with Senators Jack Reed and Chuck Hagel, Iraq Prime Minister Maliki gives an interview with Der Spiegel in which he explicitly says he supports Obama's 16 month troop withdrawal plan. After what must have been some frantic calls from Amabassador Ryan Crocker and, who knows, maybe some McCain reps, Maliki issues a tepid denial of his statement, saying he was 'mistranslated'. Yeah, right.

Then, after ridiculing Obama's willingness to negotiate with Iran, The White House sends William Burns to Europe to... negotiate with Iran. Which kind of looks like they support Obama's position. (McCain must be asking himself, "and I sold out to Bush for this?). Then the White House starts talking about 'time horizons' (ah, George Orwell, you're still relevant) for troop withdrawals from Iraq. Which, again, is something that Obama has been talking about for, oh, 16 months or so.

And then, Obama shows up in Afghanistan, which he has insisted has been the neglected piece of the war on terror, after militants have killed 9 Americans and the Taliban is gaining ground. He says all the right things in a meeting with President Karzai, including describing the situation on the ground as 'urgent' and 'precarious'. He then moves on to Kuwait, for his second visit, which usually doesn't happen if the first visit was a bust. Now he's in Iraq, and so far, so good.

If you're an Obama fan, that is. Unfortunately for McCain, he's left grasping for any spin to slow down the coverage and deal with the increasing prospect that Obama will not make a Sunni, Shia gaffe. And remember, Obama doesn't have Joe Lieberman to help him through those episodes. Mac must be wondering how he's doing it.

The press, too, is desperately trying to sound evenhanded about this trip. Editorials and articles abound about the risks this trip could pose for Obama. However, they know that they're giving him the coronation treatment and he's got to come up with a doozy to fall flat.

But there is time. And several more countries to visit. Anything can happen.

He could tell Nicolas Sarkozy to "let 'em eat cake". That would be bad. On the other hand, if Sarkozy's sexy wife, Carla Bruni, sings 'Happy Birthday' to Obama, a la Marilyn Monroe, forget it. The trip was a success.

Will this trip improve your image of Obama as commander-in-chief if he comes away unscathed? Talk about this or anything else by clicking on 'comments'below, bypassing the Google sign-up and hitting the anonymous or nickname button.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World

Apologies for not checking in for a while. Life gets in the way of political reporting, unless you get paid to do it. And then it is your life.

So let’s get caught up. Last tiome we met here, I lamented a lull in the presidential race. Silly me. Suddenly, things picked up with a call for castration, an ‘oops’ fundraising moment, surprising fundraising results, surprising theories of mental economics, two cute little girls, too cute energy plans, a new plan to kill Iranians and Iranian plans to kill others, a stunning reversal on an important vote, a stunning reversal of an alliance, a potentially stunning reversal of policy, a shameless pander to the people of Pittsburgh, and one really tasteless magazine cover.

So what's it all mean? Well, forgive me for dating myself, but we can start with the conclusion that we are living in a Mad , Mad , Mad, Mad World. Then I draw four other conclusions.

Conclusion One

Barack Obama is the luckiest politician on the planet. This is not to say he’s not skilled and that his operation doesn’t know what it’s doing. It is saying that he is the constant recipient of positive developments that occur right when he’s having some difficulties. For example, his reversal on FISA was a big deal, anyway you slice it. If he simply believed, as he said, that the legislation provided necessary resources to fight terrorism, that’s well and good. But he disappointed everyone who believes in the fourth amendment. And he disappointed Americans who believe the rule of law should apply to the President and telecomm companies. But while his own supporters attacked him for his yes vote (which kept telecomm immunity intact), John McCain couldn’t make any flip flop charge stick because he abstained from voting. That’s right, the national security guy in the race didn’t even show up to vote on the Bush administration’s cornerstone terror legislation.

Then, Iraq’s Prime Minister Maliki indicated publicly for the first time, that he will request a timetable for withdrawal of American troops. Which is what Obama has been advocating. Follow that with the Bush Administration indicating that a serious reduction of troops was imminent and Obama seemed to be the guy with all the right ideas. And on top of all that, as Obama moved to the political center, Jesse Jackson gave him his own Sister Souljah moment.

And all the while the McCain camp was misfiring on all cylinders. While Mac looked and sounded awful in an interview with Brian Williams, Phil Gramm killed Mac with the sound bite from hell about Americans whining and suffering from a ‘mental recession’. Then Mac buried himself with an off the cuff remark about how our cigarette exports to Iran are another way ‘to kill all the Iranians.’

Then back to Obama. Access Hollywood interviewed him with his wife and two children, who happen to be adorable, smart, and completely normal. And the New Yorker’s attempt to lampoon the whisper campaign against Obama’s patriotism and faith fell completely flat, prompting even McCain to support the junior Senator.

Jeez. Throw a rabbit’s foot and two horseshoes around this dude.

Conclusion 2

John McCain is the luckiest politician on the planet. After everything that went down last week, some pundits (Mark Halperin) actually sad that McCain won last week. If any other politician had changed a POW story to pander to a city, or associated with such an impolitic surrogate like Phil Gramm, or shot from the hip on another dumb ‘let’s kill all the Iranians’ comment, he’d be out of the race. Not only is McCain still in, he had a great fundraising month in June. This can only help his fundraising this month, which will buy him time to right his ship. And if he stays close in this race, he always has a shot.

Conclusion 3

Both candidates have some serious issues to overcome. Obama still has a Hillary problem. His fundraising may be dropping off because his supporters aren’t thrilled about helping her retire her debt. I also recently talked to a former Hillary supporter (just a regular voter) who is still pissed. She is talking about sitting this election out. There are a lot of those folks out there. Obama may have to consider her for Veep.

McCain has to get his act together. Stop with the gaffes. He has to shift attention away from his positions on Iran and on Iraq. They are not serving him well. I also don’t think his full throated support for NAFTA is going to help him in swing states. If he believes in it, fine. But come up with another idea to counterbalance it. For example, I would start by showing how lower taxes on businesses will really help the economy. And say it like that. Don’t say ‘corporate’ taxes, say ‘business’ taxes. And show how this is double taxation on small business owners. And maybe get someone else to make speeches.

Conclusion 4

Never fear that a presidential race will be dull. After all, it’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World.

What's the weirdest story of the past two weeks? Talk about this or anything else by clicking on 'comments', bypassing the Google sign-up and hitting the anonymous or nickname button.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Let's Be Honest...

Let's be honest...it's a little dull out there in Presidential campaign land without Mr. and Mrs. Thing. I mean, where's a little Tuzla honey or a good stiff finger jab when you need to spice up the news cycle? Never thought I'd say it, but I miss the Clintons.

And that's because Obama's playing it safe and McCain is...trying to find his teleprompter? Really. Is it so dull that the press needs to run with Obama's 'refine my position' and McCain's mispronunciation of 'Lexington' for three days to stir the pot? Man. We're in for a long, hot summer if that's the case.

So how about this piece of news: the Prime Minister of Iraq wants to set a timetable for troop withdrawal. I think that's interesting, especially since it also sheds a little light on this secret negotiation to permanently have a bunch of military bases in Iraq. But I wonder...are these the type of negotiations that ABC has with ESPN to exhibit NBA Basketball on TV? (Someone tell our non sports fan readers that ABC owns ESPN, so they get the joke. Thank you.) Seriously, though, this is a potentially big story because it reinforces Obama's long held position on getting our troops out of Iraq and accentuates the already exaggerated '100 years' thing McCain stepped into. It also exposes the White House's continual chutzpah to think it can make this kind of an agreement without the approval of Congress. Amazing.

On another front, Jim Webb has unequivocally removed himself from the Obama Veep sweepstakes. I think this is a blow to Obama because Webb was able to do four things: help him with Virginia (Virginia Senator); help him with National Security (ex-marine); help him with the post partisan argument (Webb was Under-Secretary of the Navy in Reagan's Administration and pushed through the new bi-partisan G.I. Bill ); and, for crying out loud, Webb wrote a book on the Scotch-Irish in Appalachia. Talk about an entree to a tough demo group. So, adios, Jim. Ya coulda been a contendah.

Speaking of contenders, MSNBC's Chuck Todd made a great point yesterday on 'Hardball'. He said if the economy had been the dominating issue 8 months ago, today you might have Hillary versus Romney for President. It was the War, stupid, last year and that's where Mac and Obama separated themselves from their respective packs. Not so now.

And speaking of 'Hardball', Philadelphia conservative radio host Michael Smerconish sat in for Chris Matthews last week and showed what a skilled media talent can do with that forum. 'Smerc' as David Gregory calls him, was focused, funny and ran a tight ship, both with his pundits and with the technical performance. Chris needs to step aside as he becomes more and more a bumbling 'Saturday Night Live' caricature of himself.

Speaking of bumbling, I wrote last week that FARC, the Colombian rebel group, had turned over its hostages (which included Ingrid Betancourt) to the Colombian government. While that might be one way to describe it, the better way would be to report what really happened: as part of a brilliant rescue mission by the Colombian Government, the rebels were duped into boarding the hostages onto what they thought was their own helicopter to be moved to another secret location. Totally, my bad. Though it did prove once again, that some governments can fool a lot of the people a lot of the time.

Nice going, Colombia. Now if you'd just stop beating union organizers, you'd get a free trade deal that could really help you.

Sorry. Just being honest.

What's your unoticed big story in this Presidential race? Talk about this or anything else by clicking on the 'comments' button, bypassing the Google search and hitting the anonymous or nickname button.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Moving Days

Both Presidential campaigns did some moving in the past few days--Obama to the center and McCain to Colombia.

McCain sought to burnish his foreign policy credentials with the visit and he even had a mini Reagan moment. Shortly after his departure from Cartegena yesterday the Colombian government announced that the Revolutionary group FARC had released four high profile hostages. Like the Iranian hostage crisis, it's always great when you can do none of the work but have people say 'Well, maybe he had something to do with it'. McCain moves on to Mexico.

Many strategists find this trip curious. With an American economy in shambles, visiting a South American country and praising free trade (we have a free trade pact with Colombia that is stalled in Congress), is a gambit that could cause trouble down the trail. Perhaps that's why his campaign implemented a major personnel shake-up. Hard-nosed politico Steve Schmidt, who ran Arold Schwarzenegger's gubnatorial campaign, is taking over operations. Apparently, this move came at the behest of Republican bigwigs who weren't liking the McCain organizational or fund raising game plan. Normally, this would mean huge trouble for a candidate, but not neccessarily for McCain. For one thing, Schmidt is a seriously effective operations guy. For another, Mac did the same thing last summer (to the day) and went on to win the nomination. Let's face it, politically, the dude is like Jason. He just won't die.

Obama has continued his 'Values' week with a couple of more events meant to re-brand himself as a God-loving, patriotic Amurickin. After a faith-based speech in which he declared that he would expand on Bush's faith based initiatives (allowing Federal dollars to go to religious organizations who do public service good works), he gave a speech yesterday on 'Service'. No matter what you think of Obama, please watch this video of the speech. It is unassailable. It's what we ask leaders to pitch to us.

Predictably, voters on the left are getting nervous about this rightward tack of Obama's. If you want to see him win, this is good. This election, like most of them recently, will be waged in the middle. If Obama can ease the doubts about himself as an ultra liberal to just a small percentage of centrist voters, he wins. And one of the ways to do that is to make moves that shows he's not afraid of defying his base once in a while. To wit, when Arianna Huffington says he making a big mistake by moving to the center, he is succeeding in that mainstreaming process.

Speaking of mainstreaming, just when you thought it was safe to be a regular Joe and keep hitting Obama with the elitist club, out come some damning numbers on Cindy McCain's spending habits. Like $750,000 in credit card charges...for one month! Wow. Must be nice.

And finally, what's with the Joe Lieberman "I'm with him" tour? I mean, everywhere McCain travels, there's Joe. What's he doing? Is he there to keep correcting McCain on the name of foreign sectarian groups? I live in Connecticut. The guy's my Senator and I feel ripped off. Do your day job, Ace.

Yesterday, at a press conference in Colombia, Cindy walks up on stage, Mac walks up on stage...and doh, duh, doh, doh, doh, here comes Joe. I mean, it's like he's Zelig, or Forrest Gump. And I really don't mean to be catty, but I have to say when I saw the three of them up on the stage, all I could think of was "Cindy McCain looks like a beard". For those of you too young to know what that means, go ask your parents.

And one piece of advice to Steve Schmidt. Ban any video where Lieberman is wearing a baseball cap. He looks like a combination of Chico Marx and Michael Dukakis in a tank.

Will either campaigns' moves be beneficial to them? Talk about this or anything else by clicking on'comment' below, bypassing the Google sign up and hitting the anonymous or nickname button.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Words...And Action

Yes, I went back and watched it. The supposedly defamatory statement by Gen. Wesley Clark Sunday on CBS's Face the Nation. The one where he simply said "I don't think riding in a fighter plane and being shot down is a qualification for President of the United States."

Ok, it's not a flattering statement. First of all, I think John McCain was the pilot of the plane, so he wasn't just 'riding'. And he was risking his life, as he had almost two dozen other times. But is it any worse than Charlie Black's statement that a terrorist attack would play to McCain's political advantage? Clearly not. Because like Black's statement, it's true. And for all those who think Clark was dissing McCain, watch the whole segment of the interview. He says that McCain is his hero. But he wants to debunk the notion that an officer in the military will automatically make a great Commander-in-Chief.

Of course, Obama had to retreat from the statement. He used these very good words in his speech in Independence, Missouri to do that. Plus, his campaign came out with a full denunciation of Clark's comments.

But what does it all really mean? Surrogates suck? Democrats, even ex generals, can't sound pro-armed service? We're playing a national game of 'Gotcha'? Or is it as Hamlet said, just 'Words, words, words..."?

Fortunately, today there was also action. President Bush, over his dead body, finally signed a 162 billion dollar war appropriations bill that contained Senator Jim Webb's new G.I. Bill. This was years in the making and had to be added to the supplemental package because those pro- armed services guys like Bush and McCain fought against it. In the end, sanity made a comeback. Even though Bush praised McCain for helping to pass it, (really, he fought against it), Webb was the guy who had made it his mission to give post 9-11 service men and women access to a four year college education--just like their greatest generation forbears.

So in the election cycle there are plenty of words that in the end don't really matter. But every once in a while there is action that really does matter. Four years from now, when we choose another President, there will be more words. On the other hand, four years from now, when the first G.I. Bill servicemen and women graduate from college, we'll see some real action.

Do you know someone who will take advantage of the new GI bill? Talk about this or anything else by clicking on 'comments' below, bypassing the Google search and hitting the anonymous or nickname button.