John McCain hit a tape measure shot yesterday by naming Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Looking through the prism of short term benefits, the Palin choice scores big. For example, her presence on the ticket lets McCain:
1. Change the conversation from the Dems to the GOP.
2. Throw the ultra conservative base a bone.
3. Get the attention of Hillary supporters.
4. Reassert his maverick reputation.
5. Make the Dems nervous.
And you know the Dems are nervous when all the Obama surrogates come out flailing about the choice, saying stupid things like, "She has no experience!". Yeah, where have we heard this before? Or, "he's never even met her!" So what? "It's so overtly political!" Yeah... isn't this politics? I mean, they suddenly sounded like Republicans after Thursday night's convention triumph. (And it was a triumph: 40 million Americans tuning in. Impeccable speech, flawless stage craft. One conservative told me, "there really wasn't too much you could argue with in Obama's speech".)
Fortunately, Obama had the good sense to call off an ungracious official statement by his campaign. Instead, he simply called Palin to congratulate her on her historic ascension.
The good news for Democrats is that a home run doesn't mean you lose the game, at least not in the 7th inning, which is about where we are in this race. In fact, after Obama's home run on Thursday night, one could argue that McCain is still a run behind, even with this shrewd play.
And as time rolls on, we'll see if there are long term benefits to the Palin choice. One benefit will be her ability to campaign to the conservative base, freeing Mac to go for the indies and Dems. But the drawbacks may reveal themselves over time. For one thing, Hillary supporters are not going to support Palin when they discover how anti-abortion, anti gay, and pro guns she really is. And it will be the Dems job to expose the early myths about her positions.
For example, it's true that Palin vetoed a bill to ban health benefits for same sex partners of public officials. But she did it because it was unconstitutional under existing statutes. She then supported the effort to add an amendment to the state constitution banning same sex marriage, which passed. Thus, in the end, the health benefit ban went into effect anyway. She also says that she told the US Congress 'thanks, but no thanks' to funding for the now infamous 'bridge to nowhere'. Not true. In 2006, she actively urged squeezing as much pork out Congress as possible for Alaska, knowing that project was slated for consideration. She even went to Washington herself when she was mayor of Wasilla, to secure funds for her town.
And one unintended consequence of this choice might be to energize Hillary Clinton for Obama. (Talk about a nightmare week for Hillary. You're forced to give a speech supporting the guy who denied you history; then you had to publicly suggest he be nominated by acclamation; then you find out you may never get a chance to make history because the Republicans have done what your own party wouldn't do! Hoo boy.) But the good news for Dems is that instead of Hillary secretly hoping for a McCain win so that she can get another shot in four years, she now has to make sure he doesn't win so that Palin doesn't make any more history than she's already made.
So, now it gets really interesting for the next 66 days. All because Mac went yard.
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I tend to disagree that this was a home run for the McCain campaign. Putting party allegiences aside, there are obvious problems with his choice. First and foremost, I don't believe 'yet' that Sara Palin has shown she has the required vision, judgement or grit to be the leader of the free world, in the somewhat likely event she is put in that position. For having recently been a mayor of a small town in Alaska and moving to a position of possibly being the Commander in Chief is a greater stretch than saying Obama has the required vision and grit, however, we have had well over a year to judge how Obama would do in that situation vs we only have 60+ days to judge how Mrs. Palin would do. Also, I have great confidence in Joe Biden to be able to take over for Obama if the need arises. He has vast experience in many required areas to be able to handle that position. My best wishes to John McCain and Sara Palin, however, I believe this decision is the turning point in the election, the one that moves the pendulum in favor of Obama/Biden in a big way.
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