Split? Decision

As the returns keep coming in from Indiana and North Carolina, the evening that Hillary Clinton hoped to have is not going to materialize. In fact, the opposite has transpired: a blowout win for Barack Obama in the Tarheel state and a close battle in the Hoosier state.

This means the following: there can be no claim of momentum by the Clinton camp. Her deficit in the popular vote will deepen, her deficit in the pledged delegate count will not improve, and it will be harder for Hillary to raise money.

So does this split decision mean it's time for Hillary to split? This might surprise you, but I say not so fast. There is a serious issue that exists right now in the Democratic primary campaign. It's an issue of history. As the first serious female Presidential candidate, a woman who carries the hopes of at least three generations of female voters on her back, it does not serve those women, the Democrats or even Barack Obama to have her concede an entire campaign after winning one of two contests.

The reality is that she cannot overtake Obama in either the popular vote or the pledged delegate count. The news tonight is that the Clinton camp's strategy has been to hold on until May 31st when the DNC Rules Committee meets. Word is that they will try to convince the committee to validate the Florida and Michigan results and seat those delegations. Word also is, that with Obama's big victory in North Carolina, his campaign feels they may be in a commanding enough position to cut a deal because by then it won't matter.

[A sidebar on the Michigan vote: imagine if you played on a high school basketball team and the league in which you played, perhaps because of bad weather, cancelled a game. So your team stayed at home. But the other team showed up to play. And they played by themselves, against no one, scoring basket after basket and then proclaimed themselves the winner of the game in a blowout. And then later in the season, when that team was behind in the standings, they went to the league and said the game should count. When it was pointed out to that team that your team didn't play because the game was officially cancelled, the other team said, "well, they chose not to play. We chose to play. The game should count". Would anyone take that argument seriously? Obviously not, but that's what the Clinton camp is doing right now.]

In any event, Obama's fortunes are intimately linked to Hillary's future in this race. If she is perceived as being forced out by the party, her supporters will have a tough time voting for him. If she goes full bore until June, the question has to be asked, "To what purpose? To weaken Obama in the general?" So the dance will begin. The goal must be to find a way for Hillary to come down from this campaign with full dignity and as a fairly vanquished contestant. Why would she do that? Well, in addition to the inexorable math, there's the issue of a different history. The one that contains the Clinton legacy. Do the Clintons want to be known as the team that denied America it's first African-American president? Do they want to have contributed to the Balkanization of the Democratic Party? Especially when Hillary would have a chance to run again in four years? I think they've proven that when it comes to enlightened self interest, the Clintons make the right moves.

The other question has to be, how did this night happen? Hillary was energized after Pennsylvania. Bill was barnstorming all over North Carolina and Indiana. Barack Obama had the worst three weeks of his campaign. Well, some are saying that the gas tax holiday issue was a gift to him. It refocused the debate on an issue and he took a principled stand that was not politically expedient. He was able to renew the criticism of Hillary as a "say anything to get elected" type politician. I watched both Hillary on "This Week with George Stephanapolous" and Obama on "Meet the Press" and I told my girlfriend afterwards that the gas tax holiday issue was a loser for Hillary. You could tell Hillary knew that the economics were flawed. And you could sense that Obama had regained his "reform politics as usual" voice.

In her 'victory' speech, Clinton gave every indication that she's going to continue the race. On the surface, this may seem like a bad thing for Obama and the Democrats. But if it buys her time to find the right way to get out of this race, it's actually a good thing. Because there's this issue of history.

Will she get out of the race? Or take it until June? Talk about this or anything else by clicking on 'comments' below, by pass the Google sign up and hit the nickname or anonymous button.