It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World

Apologies for not checking in for a while. Life gets in the way of political reporting, unless you get paid to do it. And then it is your life.

So let’s get caught up. Last tiome we met here, I lamented a lull in the presidential race. Silly me. Suddenly, things picked up with a call for castration, an ‘oops’ fundraising moment, surprising fundraising results, surprising theories of mental economics, two cute little girls, too cute energy plans, a new plan to kill Iranians and Iranian plans to kill others, a stunning reversal on an important vote, a stunning reversal of an alliance, a potentially stunning reversal of policy, a shameless pander to the people of Pittsburgh, and one really tasteless magazine cover.

So what's it all mean? Well, forgive me for dating myself, but we can start with the conclusion that we are living in a Mad , Mad , Mad, Mad World. Then I draw four other conclusions.

Conclusion One

Barack Obama is the luckiest politician on the planet. This is not to say he’s not skilled and that his operation doesn’t know what it’s doing. It is saying that he is the constant recipient of positive developments that occur right when he’s having some difficulties. For example, his reversal on FISA was a big deal, anyway you slice it. If he simply believed, as he said, that the legislation provided necessary resources to fight terrorism, that’s well and good. But he disappointed everyone who believes in the fourth amendment. And he disappointed Americans who believe the rule of law should apply to the President and telecomm companies. But while his own supporters attacked him for his yes vote (which kept telecomm immunity intact), John McCain couldn’t make any flip flop charge stick because he abstained from voting. That’s right, the national security guy in the race didn’t even show up to vote on the Bush administration’s cornerstone terror legislation.

Then, Iraq’s Prime Minister Maliki indicated publicly for the first time, that he will request a timetable for withdrawal of American troops. Which is what Obama has been advocating. Follow that with the Bush Administration indicating that a serious reduction of troops was imminent and Obama seemed to be the guy with all the right ideas. And on top of all that, as Obama moved to the political center, Jesse Jackson gave him his own Sister Souljah moment.

And all the while the McCain camp was misfiring on all cylinders. While Mac looked and sounded awful in an interview with Brian Williams, Phil Gramm killed Mac with the sound bite from hell about Americans whining and suffering from a ‘mental recession’. Then Mac buried himself with an off the cuff remark about how our cigarette exports to Iran are another way ‘to kill all the Iranians.’

Then back to Obama. Access Hollywood interviewed him with his wife and two children, who happen to be adorable, smart, and completely normal. And the New Yorker’s attempt to lampoon the whisper campaign against Obama’s patriotism and faith fell completely flat, prompting even McCain to support the junior Senator.

Jeez. Throw a rabbit’s foot and two horseshoes around this dude.

Conclusion 2

John McCain is the luckiest politician on the planet. After everything that went down last week, some pundits (Mark Halperin) actually sad that McCain won last week. If any other politician had changed a POW story to pander to a city, or associated with such an impolitic surrogate like Phil Gramm, or shot from the hip on another dumb ‘let’s kill all the Iranians’ comment, he’d be out of the race. Not only is McCain still in, he had a great fundraising month in June. This can only help his fundraising this month, which will buy him time to right his ship. And if he stays close in this race, he always has a shot.

Conclusion 3

Both candidates have some serious issues to overcome. Obama still has a Hillary problem. His fundraising may be dropping off because his supporters aren’t thrilled about helping her retire her debt. I also recently talked to a former Hillary supporter (just a regular voter) who is still pissed. She is talking about sitting this election out. There are a lot of those folks out there. Obama may have to consider her for Veep.

McCain has to get his act together. Stop with the gaffes. He has to shift attention away from his positions on Iran and on Iraq. They are not serving him well. I also don’t think his full throated support for NAFTA is going to help him in swing states. If he believes in it, fine. But come up with another idea to counterbalance it. For example, I would start by showing how lower taxes on businesses will really help the economy. And say it like that. Don’t say ‘corporate’ taxes, say ‘business’ taxes. And show how this is double taxation on small business owners. And maybe get someone else to make speeches.

Conclusion 4

Never fear that a presidential race will be dull. After all, it’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World.

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